MLB Scoop

The standings after baseball’s first month is not always the greatest indicator of where teams will end up at the finish.  In a 162 game season, there is time to make up ground after a slow start, and plenty of time for fast starters to trip up.

With that caveat, lets take a look at the American League so far:

AL EAST

The American League in general is unsettled so far, with no team on a quick drop out of contention.  Boston seems to be in great position to put a gap between themselves and the rest of the East, especially with the Yankees handicapped with critical injuries.  In the early season, it is often instructive to consider run differential along with won-loss records to get a sense of whether a team is lucky in close games or winning with consistent margins.  Looking at run differential shows that the Tampa Bay Rays, only a game off Boston’s pace, are delivering on the pre-season predictions that they will contend this season.  Baltimore, predicted to be with the SF Giants one of the worst teams in baseball, have a negative run differential and are the most likely team in the closely packed AL East to drop off.  Toronto on the other hand seem to be unlucky to have their under .500 record.  The Yankees will no doubt be heard from as the season goes on, but there are some tough decisions to be made in the Bronx about the starting pitching and whether the unproductive Jason Giambi should be cut loose.  The Yankees are notorious slow starters, something everyone blamed on the laid back Joe Torre.

AL CENTRAL

Through the first month of the season, this is a real dogfight with 2.5 games separating first place and last place.  Run differential indicates that the Chicago White Sox have played the best by far to this point.  However, it should be noted that Detroit is playing well after a horrible start to the season and their current form is more reflective of their abilities.  Cleveland is unlucky to be under .500 on this day.  Run differential suggests that these three teams may be the ones who stick towards the top.  Minnesota has a better shot of staying in the mix than the Royals, whose negative 30 run differential and general lack of quality compared to the others suggests they will fade soon.

AL WEST

Oakland may be the biggest surprise in the American League, not only posting an 18-13 record through this day but also have a plus 39 run differential suggesting they are the real deal.  Billy Beane may no longer be the darling of the sports management world, but his skills have always been top notch, and he’s once again used his talent to sell high on established players and bring in talented youngsters.  The Angels are right there with the A’s, and have the talent to maintain that pace even if the run differential suggests they have been lucky so far.  Of the final two teams in the West, the Mariners have a sub-500 record but a positive run differential which suggests they could get in the race.  The Rangers with their 12-18 record and negative 45 run differential, have been the worst team in the American League thus far and the most likely team to drop out of contention first.

Britain is a sports mad land where upwards of 80,000 people pack cathedrals like Old Trafford and Anfield on a weekly basis to watch their national pastime, soccer. British soccer fans follow their sport with a passion unlike anything in American sports, singing songs and carrying on like they are at a giant party. With soccer, cricket and rugby dominating the sports scene in Britain, baseball is just a minority sport. However, like in many places throughout Europe, there is a growing baseball scene, with the Mister-Baseball.com power rankings showing Britain as the 8th strongest baseball land in Europe. The British Baseball Federation is an ambitious organization with goals of seeing Britain in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. We were fortunate enough to correspond with Alan Smith, the BBF president about baseball’s growth in Britain in our second installment of our Baseball Around The World interview series (the first featured Baseball Ireland):

MLBscoop: What level of baseball in the USA is comparable to your national league’s quality of play? High school? College? Single A ball? Double A? Triple A?

BBF: Even within the top domestic league (i.e., the National League), the level of play varies widely. Almost every National League team has players that range from D1 college-level ability to high school varsity-level ability. Overall, some teams in the National League play at a low college level, and others at a high school level.

MLBscoop: What is the average attendance at a game?

BBF: A typical regular season National League game probably attracts no more than a handful of spectators, but some games will have a few dozen people in attendance. And, a few hundred spectators will watch the “Final 4″.

MLBscoop: What are the opportunities to make baseball more popular among the people of your country?

BBF: At the beginning of 2007, following some years of limited activity, the British Baseball Federation (BBF) strengthened its board with a number of committed volunteers with the energy to increase awareness of and participation in baseball in Britain. At the same time BaseballSoftballUK (BSUK), the development agency working with the BBF, secured the funding necessary to provide a number of regional coaches to promote the sport countrywide. As a result, interest and involvement in baseball at all age levels is expected to grow by the highest percentage for years.

MLBscoop: What are the challenges in making baseball more popular in your country?

BBF: Lack of funding is the biggest issue facing most baseball clubs in the UK. It is very difficult to secure national or local government help and sponsors are rarely willing to consider minority sports as they anticipate little return for their investment. One of the key development points for the BBF is to help smaller clubs expand and become more sustainable.

MLBscoop: Are there grassroots baseball leagues for children in your country like Little League Baseball in America? How widespread are these?

BBF: The BBF has Rookie, Bronco and Pony youth leagues throughout the country, covering similar age-groups to those in Little League in the US, plus an Academy programme which grows in strength every year. The development of youth baseball is at the top of the agenda for 2008 and the BBF has been working with all the independent Little League programmes in the UK with a view to integrating them into the BBF programme.

MLBscoop: What is your organization’s plan for expanding baseball in your country?

BBF: Apart from the above, there is no short answer to this. The new BBF Board has created a “Mission and Vision” document intended to strengthen the development of baseball in the UK. It is very much a working agenda describing where they are going and how they are going to get there.

MLBscoop: How would you expand that plan if you were to receive significant investment from Major League Baseball?

BBF: Through its subsidiary, Major League Baseball International (MLBI), MLB has been involved in the UK for a number of years and has helped to fund various programmes aimed at attracting school children to the sport.

Increased investment could be used both to improve existing baseball facilities and to create new, bespoke, baseball complexes throughout the country. This would attract more interest in the sport, provide our youth players with greater opportunities to improve their skills, and ultimately lead to more players progressing to professional careers – see answer to question 8 below.

MLBscoop: Do you think with proper investment from Major League Baseball, your country could one day produce high quality major league players?

BBF: MLB already provides some indirect support to British baseball which has helped to develop an increasingly effective and well-attended youth academy programme. But, of course, significant direct support would help produce professional ballplayers. It is worth noting, however, that a few young British players are currently playing at US colleges, and a couple of these are considered professional prospects.

MLBscoop: Are there any players from your country right now that you feel could have major league potential?

BBF: While it is very difficult to project any of our players as major leaguers, there are a few who came up through the British baseball ranks who may have a chance to play professional baseball. Stephen Brown, who is currently on the Stanford University baseball team, is widely considered to have major league skills. His college career has not taken off, however, so it remains to be seen whether he will have a chance to play professional baseball. Another example is Michael Johnson, who is currently playing at San Joaquin Delta College, and may also have a chance to play professionally.

Also, it should be noted that Brant Ust (AAA - Mariners) is a British ballplayer who lived and played in Britain until he was 11, and Aeden McQueary (A - Padres) is a British ballplayer who played in our National League in 2004. Mike Nickeas (AAA - Mets) is a British ballplayer who has never played domestically, but he could well be GB’s first representative in the big leagues in many years.

MLBscoop: How easy is it for people in your country to get Major League Baseball games on their television?

BBF: Very easy. Channel 5 has been broadcasting regular-season MLB games on a twice-weekly basis and has shown most of the Playoff and World Series games for a number of years. In addition, NASN is now available from as little as £10 a month and broadcasts a comprehensive programme of games each week.

MLBscoop: Which Major League Baseball teams are most popular in your country?

BBF: Most probably the New York Yankees, they are the “Manchester United” of the Majors.

MLBscoop: Which local teams are most popular in your country?

BBF: The adult teams in the UK play in various different BBF leagues throughout the country and attract limited support - see answer to question 2 above. Given this, and the lack of publicity for and reportage of their games, there is insufficient rivalry between teams to generate a nationwide favourite.

MLBscoop: Would your country be interested in participating in a future World Baseball Classic?

BBF: We would absolutely leap at the opportunity. We think the WBC has already surpassed the Olympics as the world’s premier international baseball event, and we had hoped to be included in the 2009 WBC as the second European representative (on the strength of our 2nd place finish in the 2007 Euros). In any event, we are excited about MLB’s plans to expand the WBC field to 24 teams in 2013, and we will do our best to merit inclusion among those 24 teams. It is our view that the WBC can play a great role in spurring interest in baseball in our nation and, therefore, in furthering the domestic development of the game.

The MLB season has begun in appropriate fashion. I’m prone to having pet causes when it comes to baseball, and one of mine that came to fruition was the return of the MLB to Washington DC. Never mind the two games played last week in Japan by the Red Sox and A’s, this is how you open a season, in Washington, with the President throwing out the first pitch.

George W. Bush christened the pretty new Nationals Park with a ball up above the strike zone, but credit the prez for throwing from the mound. The pitch itself was poor when compared with Bush’s October 2001 strike at Yankee Stadium in the aftermath of September 11th. You could use the crowd reactions at each game to symbolize the approval ratings Bush gets as well. In October 2001, huge cheers. Tonight, the roars were dominated by heavy booing. Perhaps the reaction startled the president into throwing it out of the strike zone. (The worst opening pitch I ever saw thrown at a baseball game was by Kofi Annan before a Yankees World Series game — he threw the ball like he had no elbow, practically straight into the dirt).

Fortunately, the game itself was better entertainment. Ryan Zimmerman capped Washington’s big night by homering to win the game. A great start to a new era for baseball in the nation’s capitol.

I’m all for playing games in international venues. I think the MLB should get more aggressive with it in fact and get out of the comfort zone of Japan to play official games in Europe, China, Korea and Australia. The English Premier League floated an idea that was ill-suited to their schedule earlier this year, adding an internationally-based game for each team. In baseball, this would better translate to multiple teams having a 2 game international series much like the Red Sox and A’s.

While I support such bold endeavors and think late March is the right time to do it, there’s only one real way to signify the true beginning of the season, and that is with the President of the United States, whomever that may be next year, throwing the first pitch at a Washington baseball game.

Every tournament that features pool play has one grouping that becomes called the Pool of Death. With the pools for the first round of the World Baseball Classic announced, it is clear that the tournament’s Pool of Death is Pool C, featuring the USA, Venezuela, Canada and Italy.

• Pool A (Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan): Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan.
• Pool B (Foro Sol Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico): Mexico, Australia, Cuba, South Africa.
• Pool C (Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada): Canada, USA, Venezuela, Italy.
• Pool D (Hiram Bithorn Stadium, San Juan, Puerto Rico): Puerto Rico, Panama, Domincan Republic, Netherlands.

Pool A: When you look at this pool, it is clear that Japan and Korea will once again advance. Taiwan’s only hope would come from Chien-Ming Wang participating and shutting down either Japan or Korea, which is a long shot. China has no chance. While it is understandable that these four nations would be pooled together again, it would have been nice to see them play in Seoul, South Korea this time around rather than return to Tokyo.

Pool B: Clearly the weakest pool in the competition, Cuba is a sure bet to advance and hosts Mexico are almost a certainty as well. South Africa has no chance, but there is an outside possibility that Australia could surprise the hosts. Don’t bet on it however.

Pool C: The USA should be the favorite for the entire tournament each time out, but Canada and Venezuela both feature MLB superstars. The USA has the depth to field an awesome roster no matter how many stars pull out, but depth is a real problem for the Canadians and Venezuelans. If key players like Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Johan Santana, Erik Bedard and Rich Harden show up for those two nations, they’ll be forces to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, Italy will probably once again feature a roster of Italian-American MLB and minor league players which means it could sneak a shock result and play spoiler in the Pool of Death. That’s the best the Italians can hope for.

Pool D: Hosts Puerto Rico should have no problem advancing with favorites the Domincan Republic. If Mariano Rivera decides he wants to represent Panama before his retirement and Carlos Lee shows up to hit, they could do better than expected. Same for the Netherlands if Andruw Jones plays and emerging MLB youngsters like Jair Jurrjens and Rick VanDenHurk play over their heads.

Imagine the shock if the USA does not make it out of Pool C. It’s unlikely, but funny things happen when baseball is played in March. Most of the position players who participated in the WBC last time around raved about the experience so I would expect them to be back. The real question for Team USA will be what pitchers will show up. Expect the other nations to get a great turn out of their MLB stars because they will want to beat the USA. The USA has the greatest depth, but top notch pitchers will have to show up for the Americans to win the tournament. While I’m disappointed more national teams aren’t involved, the 2009 WBC looks to be a very interesting spectacle once again.

Pre-season baseball projections are the sweetest dishes of the baseball hot stove. With rosters firming up, projections start to seem much more relevant just before the season starts. While they are rarely precise, projections can provide a sneak preview of what may come based on natural trends in player development and player regression, as well as the impact changed rosters may have for teams. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog collected an outstanding series of projections using a variety of reputable methods including Diamond Mind, PECOTA, CHONE, ZiPS and Hardball Times’ projections on this page. Go over there to check it out. When you come back here, look below to where we have averaged out those five different projection methods to get one aggregate projection of the 2008 season:

• AL East
• New York Yankees - 96-66
• Boston Red Sox - 92-70
• Toronto Blue Jays - 85-77
• Tampa Bay Rays - 82-80
• Baltimore Orioles - 67-95

CHONE projects 87 wins and PECOTA projects 86 for the Tampa Bay Rays, which would be an early manifestation of the potential of that team. That would probably rely on some early development from their stud pitching prospects. Toronto lands in third place in other three systems and it is clear that Tampa’s advancement is at the cost of Toronto. Baltimore finishes in last place in all five systems. Which leaves the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yanks win the division in all but the Hardball Times projections, and they still finish with the Wild Card in that one. The Sox similarly edge the Wild Card in the four projections where they land in second place.

• AL Central
• Detroit Tigers - 91-71
• Cleveland Indians - 89-73
• Minnesota Twins - 75-87
• Chicago White Sox - 74-88
• Kansas City Royals - 72-90

The Tigers win the division in three of the methods with the Indians winning in the other two. Neither lands a Wild Card spot when they lose out. Minnesota lands in third place in all projections except PECOTA, where they slump to last. The White Sox and Royals duke it out for the last place spot, with the White Sox placing ahead of the Royals in three of five sims.

• AL West
• Los Angeles Angels - 88-74
• Oakland Athletics - 81-81
• Seattle Mariners - 76-86
• Texas Rangers 74-88

The Angels win the division in all but the ZiPS projection, where they place in second and outside of the playoffs. ZiPS puts Oakland in first, but CHONE places them in third. The Texas Rangers are the consistent team in the division finishing in last place or next to last in all five sims. On the other hand, the Mariners were all over the map, finishing in second in CHONE, third in Diamond Mind and Hardball Times and last in PECOTA and ZiPS.

• NL East
• New York Mets - 95-67
• Atlanta Braves - 87-75
• Philadelphia Phillies - 87-75
• Washington Nationals - 70-92
• Florida Marlins - 68-94

That the Johan Santana-led Mets win the division in every system is no surprise. The drama in the division rests with the race between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies for second place. In the averaged results, the Braves just edged the Phils by a eight hundredths of a win. The race similarly tight in PECOTA. CHONE and Hardball Times give the second place spot to the Phils while Diamond Mind and ZiPS favor the Braves.

• NL Central
• Chicago Cubs - 88-74
• Milwaukee Brewers - 85-77
• St. Louis Cardinals - 78-84
• Cincinnati Reds - 77-85
• Houston Astros - 74-88
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 70-92

These more scientific methods do not bear out MLBscoop’s very unscientific OOTP 2008 season sim that saw the Pirates in the World Series. Instead, Pittsburgh rests in the familiar ground of last place in the averaged results. They poke their heads up to fifth place in CHONE and PECOTA, but that will be little consolation for long suffering Bucs supporters. Only the Hardball Times has the Milwaukee Brewers edging out the Chicago Cubs for first place. The Brewers also make the playoffs as the Wild Card in PECOTA, and they come in second place in every method where they do not come in first. Cincinnati is the next best performer in the division, if only because they do not end up in last place in any of the methods unlike St. Louis (PECOTA) and Houston (CHONE). The Cards edge the Reds and Astros in average wins, however.

• NL West
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 85-77
• San Diego Padres - 84-78
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 83-79
• Colorado Rockies - 82-80
• San Francisco Giants - 74-88

The Diamondbacks win the NL West in CHONE. The Rockies take it in Diamond Mind. The Padres are favored in Hardball Times and ZiPS. PECOTA likes Joe Torre’s Dodgers. That about sums it up. This division is all over the place as evidenced by the three games separating first place and fourth place in the averaged standings. The only real certainty is that the post-Bonds Giants are going to suck. For this year, at least.