MLB Scoop

Pre-season baseball projections are the sweetest dishes of the baseball hot stove. With rosters firming up, projections start to seem much more relevant just before the season starts. While they are rarely precise, projections can provide a sneak preview of what may come based on natural trends in player development and player regression, as well as the impact changed rosters may have for teams. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog collected an outstanding series of projections using a variety of reputable methods including Diamond Mind, PECOTA, CHONE, ZiPS and Hardball Times’ projections on this page. Go over there to check it out. When you come back here, look below to where we have averaged out those five different projection methods to get one aggregate projection of the 2008 season:

• AL East
• New York Yankees - 96-66
• Boston Red Sox - 92-70
• Toronto Blue Jays - 85-77
• Tampa Bay Rays - 82-80
• Baltimore Orioles - 67-95

CHONE projects 87 wins and PECOTA projects 86 for the Tampa Bay Rays, which would be an early manifestation of the potential of that team. That would probably rely on some early development from their stud pitching prospects. Toronto lands in third place in other three systems and it is clear that Tampa’s advancement is at the cost of Toronto. Baltimore finishes in last place in all five systems. Which leaves the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yanks win the division in all but the Hardball Times projections, and they still finish with the Wild Card in that one. The Sox similarly edge the Wild Card in the four projections where they land in second place.

• AL Central
• Detroit Tigers - 91-71
• Cleveland Indians - 89-73
• Minnesota Twins - 75-87
• Chicago White Sox - 74-88
• Kansas City Royals - 72-90

The Tigers win the division in three of the methods with the Indians winning in the other two. Neither lands a Wild Card spot when they lose out. Minnesota lands in third place in all projections except PECOTA, where they slump to last. The White Sox and Royals duke it out for the last place spot, with the White Sox placing ahead of the Royals in three of five sims.

• AL West
• Los Angeles Angels - 88-74
• Oakland Athletics - 81-81
• Seattle Mariners - 76-86
• Texas Rangers 74-88

The Angels win the division in all but the ZiPS projection, where they place in second and outside of the playoffs. ZiPS puts Oakland in first, but CHONE places them in third. The Texas Rangers are the consistent team in the division finishing in last place or next to last in all five sims. On the other hand, the Mariners were all over the map, finishing in second in CHONE, third in Diamond Mind and Hardball Times and last in PECOTA and ZiPS.

• NL East
• New York Mets - 95-67
• Atlanta Braves - 87-75
• Philadelphia Phillies - 87-75
• Washington Nationals - 70-92
• Florida Marlins - 68-94

That the Johan Santana-led Mets win the division in every system is no surprise. The drama in the division rests with the race between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies for second place. In the averaged results, the Braves just edged the Phils by a eight hundredths of a win. The race similarly tight in PECOTA. CHONE and Hardball Times give the second place spot to the Phils while Diamond Mind and ZiPS favor the Braves.

• NL Central
• Chicago Cubs - 88-74
• Milwaukee Brewers - 85-77
• St. Louis Cardinals - 78-84
• Cincinnati Reds - 77-85
• Houston Astros - 74-88
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 70-92

These more scientific methods do not bear out MLBscoop’s very unscientific OOTP 2008 season sim that saw the Pirates in the World Series. Instead, Pittsburgh rests in the familiar ground of last place in the averaged results. They poke their heads up to fifth place in CHONE and PECOTA, but that will be little consolation for long suffering Bucs supporters. Only the Hardball Times has the Milwaukee Brewers edging out the Chicago Cubs for first place. The Brewers also make the playoffs as the Wild Card in PECOTA, and they come in second place in every method where they do not come in first. Cincinnati is the next best performer in the division, if only because they do not end up in last place in any of the methods unlike St. Louis (PECOTA) and Houston (CHONE). The Cards edge the Reds and Astros in average wins, however.

• NL West
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 85-77
• San Diego Padres - 84-78
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 83-79
• Colorado Rockies - 82-80
• San Francisco Giants - 74-88

The Diamondbacks win the NL West in CHONE. The Rockies take it in Diamond Mind. The Padres are favored in Hardball Times and ZiPS. PECOTA likes Joe Torre’s Dodgers. That about sums it up. This division is all over the place as evidenced by the three games separating first place and fourth place in the averaged standings. The only real certainty is that the post-Bonds Giants are going to suck. For this year, at least.